Six of the seven economists and market strategists surveyed by BusinessDesk saw the kiwi falling over the course of the week, with the sharp pullback in global risk appetites likely to see the currency test lower support levels.
One economist was split on the direction for the week.
The kiwi is likely to trade between a median range of 79 US cents and 82 cents, according to the survey.
Should the kiwi fall below the 80 US cents it will wipe out a month of gains. It last traded at 80.23.
Greece is the word, still.
Greece will be the focus of currency markets for a second week, with the market looking towards the vote on Wednesday when lawmakers will be asked to pass a package of austerity measures worth 28 billion euros.
The event is widely seen as a critical point for Europe's heavily indebted states, as a failure to approve the package will see the European Union and International Monetary Fund hold back on a bailout payment of 12 billion euros needed to meet debt obligations due at the end of the month.
It may also see investors begin to seriously question the ability of the other peripheral countries, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain, to meet their repayments.
The vote had markets already bracing for the worst as early as last week, with global equities closing in the red on Friday amid expectations that Greek Prime Minster George Papandreou's will not have the support to carry the measure, with only 155 of the 300 seats in the legislature under his control.
On Wall Street, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed 1.2% lower to 1,268.45, while Europe's Stoxx 600 dropped 0.1% to 263.98.
"The vote has a binary outcome for the market," said Mike Burrowes, a market strategist at Bank of New Zealand.
"If it passes and Greece gets its bailout funds, that helps lift risk sentiment, or if it doesn't we'll see a further deterioration in risk which will drag on commodity currencies."
If approved, the package will not be a silver bullet for Europe's debt crisis, according to traders, simply as a sign that authorities are working towards preventing a Lehman Brothers shock to the global financial system.
"The irony is that if they do pass the austerity measures they'll get their 12 billion euros, but their debt that matures in July and August is well over that," said Alex Sinton, a senior dealer at ANZ New Zealand.
Locally, the National Bank Business Outlooks survey for June is due on Thursday, which the market will be scrutinising for further signs that the New Zealand economy is clawing its way to recovery.
Last month the NBBO survey showed a net 38% of businesses expect better times for the economy over the coming year, up 24 points on April.
Traders said there is some room for surprises, particularly after data this morning showed New Zealand's trade balance was $605 million in surplus last month, missing expectations by $375 million.
Markets will also be looking to the US at the end of the week for the release of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey for June.
Activity levels are expected to come in at 52 for the month, according to a consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg, down from 53.5 previously.
"Given the US data out so far, everyone knows the ISM numbers will fall," said Khoon Goh, head of market economics and strategy for ANZ New Zealand. "The question is to the extent and if it's able to stay above the 50 point level."
Rounding off the risks to the currency for the week, commodity prices will remain in the spotlight after the Thompson Reuters Jefferies CRB Index, a measure of 19 hard and soft commodities, fell 0.1% on Friday to a five month low of 329.89.
That was led by oil, after the US followed the International Energy Agency and tapped its stockpiles in a bid to ease supply and volatility pressures caused by the protracted conflict in Libya.
ICE Brent Crude futures were last trading at US$105.67 a barrel, down from US$108.61 on Friday, and well off the April peak of US$ 127.02 a barrel.
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